Oil prices and possible solutions
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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Orpheus on Sat Mar 19th at 11:58pm 2005


? quoting Leperous

Anyway, why bother with acres of plants, when you can place (potentially) more efficient and cost-effective solar panels? Doing so would replace traditional farming jobs with fewer high-technology ones, but I'm sure those many billions of dollars of subsidies I suspect you pay that are saved can go into useful related schemes...

i know you have been here, but i do not think you fully realize the acreages available for farming. shoot, i know people whom live in the US who cannot fully comprehend how much land is empty. land doing nothing at all.

also, the technology is already in place to use them for plants. sure, i agree that solar is the way to go eventually, but on the short term, i feel it is prudent to use what is already close at hand.

the process necessary to utilize solar energy on any scale at all is years away from practical use. i think science needs to work on its storage and reducing both the size of the batteries and also the motors use of the available power. battery life would never suffice in its current config.

anyways.. i agree, but think its not the best answer right this moment.

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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Tracer Bullet on Sun Mar 20th at 3:37am 2005


I am going to be very blunt. Lep is the only one who has commented so far who has a realistic grasp of the scope of the energy problem and the potential solutions.

Biodiesel:

Algae is the most efficient current means of producing the requisite oils which are then processed (esterification) to produce a fuel that can burn in common diesel engines.

To produce enough energy to supply the transportation demands of the United States, something like 1/3 of the airable land of the USA would have to be used for algae ponds. To grow enough grain crops (rapeseed) would take even more land. Even if you were to do this, where does the water come from? We already have terrible problems with that in the west.

NOTE: This is for transportation ONLY. There simply is not enough energy available form biomass to meet all of our needs. Biodiesel may be a good interim measure, but it is not a viable long term solution.

Other forms of biomass fuel are more promising, such as gasification of wood, but I do not know the specifics of how much energy is actually available there. I think there is more than enough, but there has not been a huge amount of research done in this area so far as I know, so I don't see it as a likely future alternative.

The "Hydrogen Economy":

Hydrogen is NOT an energy source. It needs to be produced either from fossil fuels, biomass, or splitting water. In all cases, energy is lost in conversion. Fuel cells do not run on water, and never will.

There are MASSIVE technical hurdles still to the practical implementation of fuel cells, not the least of which is a cost-effective method of producing hydrogen. Fortunately these are now mostly in the realm of engineering rather than basic science, so I think you will see the mass introduction of fuel cell technology within the next fifty years, but not sooner than ten or twenty (except maybe in portable electronics, which will come sooner, I think).

Ultimately fuel cells and hydrogen will take over, but let me stress again that this is much like a replacement for the power grid. It does not produce energy it only transmits it to the customer.

"Renewable" Energy:

Wind, geothermal, and hydroelectric power are not viable options. Again there is simply not enough energy available.

As Lep indicated, Solar power is one of only three viable options available to us in the mid to long term view. There will be a mix of solar-electric generation and direct catalytic photochemical hydrogen production from water. Both of these things are a long way from being practical replacements for fossil fuels. At the moment solar-electric panels are far to fragile and expensive, while direct solar hydrogen generation has been a dream of chemist for the last fifty years. Barring a stunning scientific discovery (not unthinkable) both of these technologies are, in my view, 25-50 and 50-100 years in the future respectively.

Nuclear Energy:

While Fusion is, as Lep said, one of our only ultimate alternatives (solar is the only other option in the end), there is another shorter term technology that could supply the worlds energy needs for the next several hundred years: Fast-Breeder reactors.

These are advanced fission plants which are a proven technology. Indeed, I believe that France meets much of it's domestic power needs with such reactors. These plants are unique in that they produce more fuel as they run. I do not no the specifics of the nuclear decay chain involved. However, as I said, these plants could keep the world in energy for hundreds of years.

Unfortunately this design suffers from two politically, and maybe practically fatal flaws. First, the design produces weapons-grade materials (Pu-239). Second, these reactors have a positive temperature coefficient. The first of these objections is obvious to everyone, while the second is more subtle and far more dangerous.

All American reactor designs have negative temperature coefficients. what this means is that as the fuel rods heat up, the fission reaction is attenuated. Thus, it is literally impossible to have a "meltdown". A positive temperature coefficient on the other hand creates exactly the reverse situation. As the core heats up, the reaction rate increases and generates more heat.... Chernobyl had a positive temperature coefficient. You might be interested to know that even that terrible accident was not a true meltdown. A true meltdown involves the runaway reaction of the core causing it to literally melt it's way straight through the earth's crust.

Conclusion:

The ONLY viable alternatives in the long run are solar and fusion power. That said however, the "crisis" is not as bad as many people want you to believe. For example, there are enough proven coal reserves for the next fivehundred years. All that wants is improved technology for using it in a more environmentally benign way.

In terms of the America here is my checklist:

  • Conservation is #1. Strict emissions and fuel efficiency standards on all new vehicles ought to be enacted along with a massive gas tax to stimulate consumer desire for efficent vehicles and public transport.
  • Throw a great deal of money into short-term high payoff ways of exploiting our massive domestic coal reserves.
  • Work toward a clean energy distribution system (hydrogen)
  • Continue with fusion and solar power research at the best possible rate. in particular all the countries involved need to stop their goddamn bellyaching about where ITER will be located and just build the damn thing.
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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Gwil on Sun Mar 20th at 4:06am 2005


Any existing consumer desire for efficient fuels (the people who care aren't market involved anyway.. so what the f**K is the point) will be riled and beaten down by easy points scoring party politics to appease the desire and whim of those who live by the "American Dream" (using the term loosely, I dont hate America, just all western consumerist nations! ). People live for the moment, not for the future.

In fact, I'll just opt out this thread as everything I say is the blunt truth and not conducive to good debate on the topic

Something something nazi conspiracy oh wait something.
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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Tracer Bullet on Sun Mar 20th at 4:14am 2005


? quoting Gwil
Consumer desire will be riled and beaten down by easy points scoring party politics. People live for the moment, not for the future.

In fact, I'll just opt out this thread as everything I say is the blunt truth and not conducive to good debate on the topic

Something something nazi conspiracy oh wait something.

TBH, this isn't the best of all topics for a debate (no offense Orph) because there are too many objective facts involved. The best debates are philosophical ones where facts are few and far between.

In my view, high oil prices are about the best thing that could happen to the world, and I don't really care how they get there. A tax would be best, but I'll settle for war and wanton destruction. Either one will stimulate technical innovation to overcome the obstacle.

*Prays for $10/gal. gasoline*

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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Gwil on Sun Mar 20th at 4:18am 2005


Indeed, the very nature of democracy and rampant capitalism and consumerism dictates this problem will not be solved soon, certainly not (solved) in any of our lifetimes. How the change comes about is beyond me - and for good or bad is up in the air too, the way we are heading is a morally devoid lapse in "civilised" behaviour indeed. My ideals dictate that, will be the true downfall of the world, not a collapse of the markets...

Like I say, i'll leave the thread
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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Tracer Bullet on Sun Mar 20th at 4:22am 2005


I don't entirely agree, but it is a near thing. If we can get fusion working you might be pleasantly surprised by the results at least within our lifetimes. On the other hand though, I see current human civilization as unsustainable. Collapse is inevitable for the simple reason that we are always growing. If you blow the bubble big enough eventually it will burst. [addsig]



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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Gwil on Sun Mar 20th at 4:28am 2005


The scorn for religion, the basis of our very moral fabric will be our downfall. We are also overdue by a species measurement (dominant species) and a "Roman Empire" style collapse.

I'm stocking up on "how to live off tree bark for 20 days" books and whatnot, and getting my money in while I can LD
[addsig]




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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Tracer Bullet on Sun Mar 20th at 4:40am 2005


? quoting Gwil
The scorn for religion, the basis of our very moral fabric will be our downfall. We are also overdue by a species measurement (dominant species) and a "Roman Empire" style collapse.

I'm stocking up on "how to live off tree bark for 20 days" books and whatnot, and getting my money in while I can LD

I'm not all that depressed about it. I don't figure on anything catestrophic for at least a few hundred years, but I guess you never can tell.

[addsig]




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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Leperous on Sun Mar 20th at 11:21am 2005


I'm pretty sure the Europeans will go it alone on ITER if a decision isn't made soon.

Actually I went to an interview for a summer job at JET, but didn't get it (stupid IT post! I wanted a physics one, dammit!). It's currently offline until the summer, and very few people get to go in and see the machinery itself.





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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Orpheus on Sun Mar 20th at 11:59am 2005


Tracer, I also hate to be blunt.

except for your last part about the American checklist, everything you typed is at least a decade away, if not many decades.

the American infrastructure will not allow itself to be so vastly transformed on so big a pipe dream as the things you said. Its not that I disagree, far be it, but it is vastly unrealistic to even imagine most of what you typed, even if it is the only and best solutions proposed so far.

Americans are spoiled, bottom line thats the biggest fact you have to contend with. it is the biggest hurdle, and it will be the biggest and slowest one to change. I have heard people get stinking slobby pissed over any proposition that discriminates against their right to own an SUV. they will not stand for any solution that taxes them more than anyone else, it is "their god given right" gimme a f**king break.

anywho's, I like what you typed, but honestly its either years away, or a pipe dream. sorry, but its not the best, most realistic solution today. and today is the problem. tomorrow an asteroid could cause a nuclear winter and our problems will solve themselves.

on the short term, from a purely economical standpoint people must use they available infrastructure already in place.

1) people can conserve.
2) machines can be made more efficient.
3) fuels can be grown and processed.
4) wind generators can be used more frequently. (i am surprised no one till you,said this but my being a traveler by trade, i have noticed a vast upgrade in installing these generators over the last year.)

currently, it doesn't matter if you or lep are the two most intelligent people here in this discussion, what really matters is a practical viewpoint, and any common person has that attribute. actually it is forced upon the less intelligent because life treats dumb people harsher and they tend to be more attuned to what needs to be done to make their lives less miserable.

I am not picking on you tracer, but i do feel your comments were impractical for any short term results.

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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Tracer Bullet on Sun Mar 20th at 8:01pm 2005


No worries Orph, but I feel you may have missed my point. Yes, I freely admit (and did in my original post) that every solution (except conservation) I listed is at least 2-5 decades away. The problem is that there ARE no other practical solutions. The quantities of energy involved are just to vast to contemplate less drastic measures. I am not trying to say that Lep and myself are the smartest here, merely that our position as physical scientists has exposed us to the issues involved here on a more realistic level than the general population.

From my viewpoint, things like wind power and biodiesel are the true pipe-dreams. While they seem more achievable in the short term, the fact is that they simply do not constitute sufficient sources of energy to change anything.

I fully agree about the unchangeable nature of American society on this point. No change will ever occur for ideological reasons. Everything must be economically motivated. Oil will inevitably continue to get more expensive, and as it does, the economic pressure to find and use alternatives will increase. People may also begin to worry about global warming when none of their favorite ski resorts have any snow.

Conservation really is the only short term solution. I recycle every thing I can, use as little electricity as possible, and ride my bike everywhere. Can you imagine much of the population altering their lifestyle to reflect mine? I think not. If I could afford it, I'd have a car, although it would likely be a hybrid and I wouldn't drive it to work.

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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Orpheus on Sun Mar 20th at 9:36pm 2005


thats twice you have claimed wind power is not an option. there are untold millions of acres un-used by anything more than a a bird perch or a rabbits burrow in the US.

in fact, it doesn't even have to be barren, i would jump at the chance to have a wind generator in my yard. can you imagine the fuel savings if we did not rely on the fossil sources to heat our homes or to run the mundane items like refrigerators?

true, it wouldn't be prudent to put them in towns as most people are just to stupid to leave them alone. someone is bound to run into one while driving (and talking on their phones )

but rural and semi-rural residences could easily have one in each yard.

and thats with today's tech. there have got to be improvements available to the generating process.

i mean no insult, but America is only using a few percent of its surface for anything more than range cattle.

wind power is an option.

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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Tracer Bullet on Sun Mar 20th at 10:35pm 2005


I seem to have misremembered the figures on that point. I looked it up, and it seems that you are right about wind power. Potentially, wind turbines could supply as much as 1/5 of the worlds energy needs and is already economically competitive with fossil fuels. My bad. I don't really understand why wind power is not exploited more in the United States, particularly in view of the massive land area we have in the mid-west.

[addsig]



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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Orpheus on Sun Mar 20th at 10:38pm 2005


? quoting Tracer Bullet
I seem to have misremembered the figures on that point. I looked it up, and it seems that you are right about wind power. Potentially, wind turbines could supply as much as 1/5 of the worlds energy needs and is already economically competitive with fossil fuels. My bad. I don't really understand why wind power is not exploited more in the United States, particularly in view of the massive land area we have in the mid-west.

*wipes brow*

you were almost on the verge of convincing me i had made yet another mistake. I was sure, near positive, but you are way ahead of this old coot in so many areas.

thanx for confirming it at least. funny i never thought to look it up myself.

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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Tracer Bullet on Sun Mar 20th at 11:01pm 2005


Well, it isn't the sort of thing that is really all that easy to "look up" it just happens that I have a text book sitting two feet away that addresses most of these issues. As for the "old coot" I figure anyone who makes Sargent (not to mention makes good maps) has to be pretty far up there in native intellect. [addsig]



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Re: Oil prices and possible solutions
Posted by Orpheus on Sun Mar 20th at 11:07pm 2005


*blushes*

oh stop.

seriously though, it is near impossible to describe our country to anyone whom has not seen it. it doesn't seem to matter if they live here or not.

another consideration. there is vast portions of the world where the wind never stops blowing, and cannot be used by anything other than a polar bear or penguin.

other places where a scorpion is the only native alive for miles too.

wind power has got the be the least used, and most easily implemented power generation available. /me wonders what i am missing.

[addsig]





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