The main reason I think the complexity argument lacks is that even us Half-Life 1 kids, if you remember, started out on a horrible, horrible program called Worldcraft, poorly documented, with awkward rules, potential crashes and 6-hour compile times. What motivated us (and the players) were the
possibilities, even with the standard content provided.
I started mapping doing simple singleplayer maps for HL1. There are 18 completely different enemies, 14 weapons (most of them never seen before in an FPS) and texture sets for military bases, deserts, cliffs, factories, high-tech labs, offices and xen. I still get ideas for new, fun scenarios just thinking of these.
On the other hand, I recently dug a bit into HL2 singleplayer mapping. It was fun, but also... bleak. I found it hard to come up with a
single original enemy setup. Combine soldiers are the only relatively smart opponents. Manhacks, rollermines, antlions and striders the only truly unique enemies since the first game. Weapon variety is spiced up by the gravity gun. But from there on, it's getting stale as well. All you can do is script, script, script and hope it will distract players from shooting the same enemies over and over again. It reminded me that even Minerva shines more through the creator's impressive vocabulary and knowledge of ancient gods than actual
gameplay.
[kitten picture as a motivation to read on]
It's no coincidence the only commercial mod for HL2 so far is built around the physics system, the part of HL2 that is the most innovative and provokes creativity. Garry's Mod proved that the claim that the masses need custom content to be happy and accept a mod is simply false.
The main reason for mods to have become so custom-content heavy, is a lack of inspiration. Inspiration that was provided by the
games themselves in the mid-90ies, with scenarios that were fun, varied and focused on gameplay. The "more" is lacking in games today. Content is built around a simple-as-possible, perfectly polished, linear path. When I look at HL2, I feel like there is little to add. Everything that you can possibly do with the content and gameplay, has been done in the main game. You can not help but feel like repeating yourself if you don't create additional content.
Calling for a death of modding as we know it, is IMO, a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. "Let's lower support for modding, it's getting unpopular"... "Oh, see, we were right, nobody's modding". Now, is that because the internets grew tired of modding or because of the lack of support in the first place? I think it's more of the latter, but ultimately neither. It's because games do not have enough content anymore to fill additional mods. They do not inspire.
I'm not really worried about Rage. I'm more worried about an eventual new game that brings back the inspiring freshness and variety of the Half-Life days, but decides to go the same route. Only because it will not be "fashionable" to support a mod community anymore.
PS: Research & Development? Let's just say, exceptions prove the rule. It is also built around both physics gameplay and the newer content provided with Episode 2, so I'm not even sure whether it is an exception...
PPS: Now,
that's a wall of text, Riven!